Why acclaimed masterpiece “One Battle After Another” may lose $100m

Paul Thomas Anderson’s political thriller, One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, has garnered massive critical acclaim, hailed as a “masterpiece” and an “action-packed, wildly entertaining night at the cinema.” Yet, despite its rave reviews and A-list cast (including Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro), the film is currently tracking to lose a staggering $100 million at the box office, according to bbc.com.

The film’s global haul stands at approximately $162.5 million after four weekends, a figure that seems impressive for an original, R-rated, and nearly three-hour-long feature. However, with an official budget of $130 million – potentially more – and significant marketing costs stacked on top, the film needs roughly $300 million globally just to break even, far outstripping its current earnings.

This box-office shortfall highlights a gloomy post-pandemic reality in Hollywood: only IP-based blockbusters and horror films consistently draw massive crowds to the multiplex. One Battle After Another, for all its surface-level action, is fundamentally an art house film from auteur Paul Thomas Anderson, whose previous biggest box-office hit, There Will Be Blood (2007), made only $76.9 million.

The core issue, experts agree, is the astronomical production budget. Charles Gant, box-office editor at Screen International, concedes that the “high production budget is making it hard to achieve profitability.”

Despite the financial red ink, the situation isn’t a total failure for Warner Bros. The studio’s decision to bankroll the high-risk project is viewed by some industry insiders as a strategic “major gamble” aimed at prestige and talent acquisition, rather than pure profit.

“It’s what [studio executives] point at when people criticise them for not doing real films anymore,” says author John Bleasdale. The film enhances Warner’s reputation as an auteur-friendly studio – a vital currency in the post-Christopher Nolan (who switched to Universal for Oppenheimer) landscape.

With 2025 successes like Sinners, A Minecraft Movie and Superman on their slate, Warner Bros. has the financial cushion to absorb the loss. The studio has successfully forged a relationship with a respected filmmaker in Anderson and secured a major contender for the upcoming awards season. As one analyst quipped, “You have a movie from a great contemporary film-maker that’s got good reviews… Paul Thomas Anderson can get his Oscar, then you call it a win.”

Furthermore, the film’s “long shelf life” is key. While it may not hit Avengers numbers, positive word-of-mouth and inevitable Oscar nominations are expected to boost later cinema takings, with significant additional revenue projected from reissues, Blu-ray sales, streaming deals and television licensing. 

In the end, putting money into a Paul Thomas Anderson film, even one that flops commercially, secures a high-prestige title – a safer long-term bet than a flopping cartoon (Smurfs) or superhero film (The Flash).

  • Featured image courtesy Warner Bros Pictures
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